Chicago Soybeans And Corn Rally, But Wheat Ends Lower Again

21/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. With US exporters having already shipped 98% of the USDA's target for the season on old crop beans, premiums continue to be made on the nears. The USDA announced 110,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2015/16 shipment, adding support to new crop, sales of which haven't been too stellar of late. A weaker US dollar today was also a bit friendly. Concerns and much debate surround this year's US yield potential. Most think that the USDA are too high at 46 bu/acre, with something around 44.0-44.5 nu/acre being well-touted as a more realistic range. Coming up with an average in what looks like being a highly varied year isn't easy. Chinese customs data showed that they imported more than 8 MMT of soybeans in June, up more than 26% on a year previously. Imports from Brazil were 6.66 MMT, with 1.17 MMT coming from Argentina. Chinese imports from the US though were only a nominal 2,771 MT. Their soybean imports now need to average 7.57 MMT in July and August to reach the USDA's total 2014/15 import estimate of 74 MMT, say Benson Quinn. It is thought likely that their July imports will be in the 8-9 MMT region. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.18 3/4, up 11 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $10.04 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $359.90, up $3.90; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.93, up 25 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with small gains, but only managed to claw back a small proportion of yesterday's losses. Customs data showed China imported almost 873 TMT of corn in July. Taiwan's MFIG are tendering in the market for 130,000 MT of corn of US, South American or South African origin for Oct-Dec shipment. There's talk of heat and dryness potentially leading to a corn production downgrade in Ukraine. Temperatures are expected to hit 35C in the west of the country this week. As with soybeans, this year looks like throwing up some especially varied yields across the US. "Overall, the best corn is still clearly in the western Midwest, which is why I project record yields for Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska. The poorest corn is across the southern Midwest," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. He now sees the national yield at an average of 168 bushels/acre, up from 166.8 bushels/acre the previous week (the latter number being where the USDA currently reside). "Over the next 10 days, temperatures will fluctuate depending on areas: the Plains will be warmer than normal while near normal temps take place in the eastern corn belt. The hottest weather takes place at the end of this week before it returns to near normal for the end of July and early August. Rains will take place occasionally with near normal rainfall through next Thursday, after that normal to below rainfall is expected," say the Fintec Group. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.06 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.17 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: There was no "Turnaround Tuesday" for the wheat market, which closed lower again across the three exchanges. Egypt bought 175,000 MT of Russian wheat for Sep 1-10 shipment. The prices paid were around $20/tonne below US FOB levels, and that was on a delivered basis! A reminder once again that US wheat is simply too expensive to feature into anything but safe, traditional homes. Talking of which, Japan are staging their regular weekly tender for 141,483 MT of food wheat for Aug-Sept shipment. The mix is the usual combo of US western white wheat, US HRW wheat, US dark northern spring wheat, Canadian red spring wheat and Australian white wheat. The results are expected tomorrow, but routine business like this isn't going to provide much in the way of support for the US wheat market. Romanian and French wheat was also outpriced in the GASC tender, meaning that they also need to sharpen their pencils next time. It is interesting to see Russia get a clean sweep this time around, especially as analysts there are reducing their export forecasts, for July and August at least. There's talk that the government and exporters have reached some sort of accord over the new export duty on wheat that came into force on Jul 1. It has certainly hit Russian exports this month. Rusagrotrans today cut their forecast for July grain exports from 2.8 MMT to 2.1 MMT, of which 1.4 MMT will be wheat, they estimate. SovEcon put wheat exports even lower this month at 1 MMT. Rusagrotrans note that wheat exports in July will make up two thirds of total grain shipments versus 80% in July 2014. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24 3/4, down 8 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.18, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.56 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents.