Chicago Grains Fall In Quiet Trade
06/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower at the end of a quiet session, with many participants still away on holiday. European markets remained closed for the Easter break, and fresh news was lacking. The USDA reported weekly soybean export inspections of 564,823 MT, down from 657,553 MT last week. Year to date shipments are now 44.89 MMT. The USDA currently have total full season exports at 48.716 MMT, so they are at 92% of that target already, ten points ahead of a "normal" year. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 83% of their old crop beans sold versus 91% a year ago. New crop sales are at 18% versus 16% a year ago. The USDA are out Thursday with their April WASDE report, so we could get some book-squaring ahead of that. "The first 'official' outlook for 2015/16 will come in the May WASDE report. Thursday’s WASDE is not expected to be much of a market mover," said Benson Quinn. CONAB are out Friday with their Brazilian production estimates. Last time they had the Brazilian bean crop crop estimated at 93.3 MMT. May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.78 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.83 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; May 15 Soybean Meal closed at $323.00, down $4.30; May 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.26, up 22 points.
Corn: The corn market ended a cent or so lower in subdued holiday-type trade. Weekly export inspections of just over 1 MMT were supportive. Even so, that only takes the season to date total to 78% of the current USDA estimate, which is five points behind "normal". Argentine farmers are said to be almost 33% sold on their 2014/15 corn crop versus 18% committed a year ago at this time. The Russian Ag Ministry forecast 2015/16 corn production there down 1 MMT on last year at 10 MMT. They see exports falling from 2.1 MMT this season to 2.0 MMT next time round. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports shipped out 303.2 TMT of grains this past week, of which almost 82% (248.1 TMT) was corn. The USDA's FAS in South Korea estimated that the Asian country will import 4 MMT of US corn in 2015/16, meaning that the US will account for around 41% of all South Korean corn imports. The USDA resumed their weekly crop progress report today, but didn't include any figures for corn, they are expected to come next week. They reported US sorghum plantings at 9% complete versus 11% a year ago and 15% for the 5-year average. Tonight's new crop soybean:corn price ratio finished at 2.36:1 versus 2.37:1 at the end of the last session. Following the USDA on Thursday, CONAB are due to update us with their Brazilian crop estimates on Friday. Last time round they had the Brazilian corn crop at 78.2 MMT. May 15 Corn closed at $3.85, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.93, down 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market reversed overnight firmer trade to close lower. Weekly export inspections of 370,086 MT were up from 323,132 MT last week but well below the 629,787 MT exported a year ago. This remains the number one problem for US wheat. The USDA reported that 44% of the US winter wheat crop was in good to excellent condition versus trade guesses of 40-42%. This was their first weekly rating of the spring. Last year the crop was rated only 35% good to excellent. Kansas G/E came in at 33%, OK was 43%, NE was 34%, TX was 54%, WA and SD were both on 29%. Saudi Arabia were reported to have bought 780 TMT of optional origin wheat over the weekend at values that Benson Quinn called "sobering". The Russian Ag Ministry maintained their insistence that the country would harvest 100 MMT of grains this year, forecasting exports at 25 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Moscow put this year's grain crop down 11% at 92 MMT, with domestic consumption up slightly to 70.6 MMT. They see this year's Russian wheat crop falling 10%, or 6 MMT, to 53 MMT. The Russian deputy PM said that he currently sees no reason to consider an early cancellation of the export duty on wheat, indeed adding that he is not ruling out an extension when the current one expires at the end of June. The Canadian Wheat Board said that the country had exported 10.6 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) in the first 34 weeks of the season, an increase of 7% year-on-year. May 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; May 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.72, down 10 3/4 cents; May 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.89 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents.