Nogger's Blog

05/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 10 cents higher. "The overnight drop in Jan futures below $10 also seemed to attract end user pricing with China said to have been an active buyer early in the session," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Planting in Brazil's leading producing state of Mato Grosso is now in full tilt, after a delayed start to the rainy season. Farmers there sowed 20% of the crop last week, taking total plantings to around 45% complete, although that's still well behind the norm of 75% done at this time. The concentrated planting period means that as much as 80% of the crop could all be ready to harvest in the same 15-20 day timeframe, giving farmers a further headache later in the season, says Dr Cordonnier. Parana is 47% done, which is in line with last year. Rio Grande do Sul is only just getting going at 2% planted versus 10% this time last year, he adds. Safras e Mercado said Brazilian farmers have sold 17% of their new crop beans versus 33% a year ago and 36% normally at this time. CNGOIC estimated China’s November soybean imports at 5.81 MMT versus 4.2 MMT in October. December imports are seen rising further to around 6.8 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 1.0-1.2 MMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.20 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.19 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $375.30, up $2.80; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.72, down 35 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents higher. Weekly US ethanol production came in at 929,000 barrels/day, down from 937,000 barrels/day the previous week. The USDA attaché in Argentina estimated their 2014/15 corn crop at 22.0 MMT versus the official estimate of 23.0 MMT and the 2013/14 crop of 26.0 MMT. Ag Resource estimated the 2014 US corn yield at 176.0 bu/acre with production coming in at 14.627 billion bushels. The USDA were 174.2 bu/acre and 14.395 billion bushels last month. Informa has the world 2014/15 corn crop estimated at 984.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 982.5 MMT and the 2013/14 crop of 990.4 MMT. Dr Cordonnier has the Brazilian 2014/15 corn crop estimated at 72.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 73.0 MMT. He sees the Argentine corn crop at 21.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had exported more than 2 MMT of corn so far this season. Their exports are now starting to pick up as the 2014 harvest winds down. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 600-800 TMT. Crude oil rebounded from 3 year lows. "The sharply higher trade in a crude oil market in need of a correction was partially tied to a Saudi pipeline explosion," said Benson Quinn. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.70 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.83, up 5 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on improving conditions in the southern Plains and on ideas that US wheat prices are too high to compete with cheaper offers from elsewhere around the world. Egypt's GASC bought 180 TMT of French wheat, along with a 55 TMT cargo of Ukraine origin material. They've only booked one 55 TMT cargo of US wheat so far this season. The USDA attaché in Argentina estimated their 2014/15 wheat crop at 12.5 MMT versus the official estimate of 12.0 MMT and last year's crop of 10.5 MMT. Harvesting there is now underway. Pakistan imposed a 20% import duty on wheat. Jordan cancelled a tender for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat for April–May shipment. Informa estimated the global 2014/15 wheat crop at 724.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 726.2 MMT and the 2013/14 crop of 714.9 MMT. "US wheat futures remain under pressure as fundamental inputs are playing a bigger role and technicals continue to weaken," said Benson Quinn. Ukraine said that it had exported 6.7 MMT of wheat so far this season. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are a relatively modest 325,000-525,000 MT. Sales last week were 444,900 MT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.84 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.59 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents.