Nogger's Blog

30/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans ended a choppy day lower, and more or less at the lows of the day. This may have been linked to month end profit-taking following the recent rally. Weekly export sales were good at over 1.3 MMT and actual shipments of in excess of 1.8 MMT were also robust. "It was clear the market is tired and overbought based on the weak reaction to export sales but cash markets remain firm and producer is still a reluctant seller as today’s weaker trade was orderly in a moderate volume session," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The International Grains Council cut their forecast for the 2014/15 global soybean crop by 3 MMT to 307 MMT, although that's still a record volume and 8% up year on year. Despite the reduction, world carryover stocks were raised 1 MMT to 40 MMT, a 40% increase versus 2013/14. The US soybean crop this year was raised from 106.5 MMT to 106.9 MMT, with Brazil's cut from 94 MMT to 91 MMT and Argentina's left unchanged at 54 MMT. China's imports were seen unchanged from last month at 73 MMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.24 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.29 3/4, down 19 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $380.00, down $17.20; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 34.31, up 13 points.

Corn: The corn market shed around a cent, doing its best to ignore what was going on in the soy complex. Weekly export sales of under 500 TMT for the 2014/15 marketing year were less than spectacular and below trade expectations. Fresh inputs were lacking. "Corn found some fund buying, but couldn’t gain much traction through the course of the day session. The poor close, with help from soybeans, indicates the corn market is losing upward momentum," said Benson Quinn. The IGC raised world corn production in 2014/15 by 6 MMT to 980 MMT, now only 3 MMT behind last season's record. Ending stocks were up 3 MMT to 194 MMT. "Despite further upgrades to US and EU crop forecasts, world production is still placed slightly short of last year’s record, due to expected declines in China and South America," they said. The EU corn crop is now seen at 72.9 MMT, up 2.2 MMT from a month ago and an all time high. They also raised the US crop by 5 MMT to a record 365 MMT. China's crop was trimmed from 215 MMT to 213.8 MMT. Separately, German analysts F O Licht raised their estimate for the EU-28 corn crop from the 70.4 MMT forecast a month ago to 74 MMT, a rise of 9.5 MMT versus a year ago. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.74 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, down 1 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 2-5 cents lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export sales of 444,900 MT were in line with trade ideas. "US wheat futures continue to trade at a distinct premium to global offers. However, sales, while not great, continue to meet or exceed what needs to be averaged on a weekly basis to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 925 million bushels," said Benson Quinn. The IGC raised world wheat production this season by 1 MMT to a record 718 MMT. Australia's crop was trimmed 1 MMT to 24 MMT, Canada's was reduced by 0.5 MMT to 27 MMT, and Kazakhstan's cut by a similar amount to 13.5 MMT. There were increases for Europe, up 1 MMT to 154.1 MMT and the US, up 400 TMT to 55.4 MMT. Tunisia tendered to buy 142 TMT of durum wheat. In Brazil, the wheat harvest in Parana state is said to be 72% complete versus 60% normally at this time. Quality is said to have improved amongst the later harvested material. Crop conditions in the US winter wheat belt are causing some concern. "The US Drought Monitor continues to show severe drought in Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas. These are the 3 top bread wheat states. This is a carryover from a historic drought last winter," said Martell Crop Projections. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.36, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.02, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.77 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.