Nogger's Blog

15/01/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans jumped following the news that NOPA members crushed a record 165.38 million bushels of soybeans in December, beating trade forecasts for a monthly crush of 163.9 million. The November crush was 160.145 million bushels and the Dec 2012 crush was 159.899 million. The USDA announced 106,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment, which was also supportive. The trade is expecting another round of robust export sales in tomorrow's regular weekly report, with estimates for beans in the 750 TMT to 1 MMT range. The US has already hit the USDA's export target for 2013/14. Benson Quinn said "the trade seems to shifting their expectations that China cancellation of US soybean purchases were inevitable to one of show me before I believe it." A private Brazilian firm pegged soybean production there at 91.6 MMT, adding that 39 MMT of that will be harvested by the end of February. Weather conditions in Brazil are generally favourable, but Argentina needs more rain and cooler temperatures. Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $13.18, up 11 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $12.97 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $434.50, up $4.40; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.99, up 23 points.

Corn: The corn market tumbled on news that the weekly ethanol grind was only 868,000 barrels/day this past week, down 51,000 bpd on the previous week and well below the level required to hit the USDA target for the season. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 7,000 corn contracts on the day. Abundant US corn stocks weigh on the market. Last Friday’s stocks report indicated that “on farm” corn supplies totalled 6.38 billion bushels, up 39% from a year earlier. The “off-farm” stocks totalled 4.05 billion bushels, up 17% from a year ago and the highest on record. Argentine weather is a threat, particularly for corn pollinating. Some private estimates for the Argentine corn crop are below 20 MMT versus the USDA's 25 MMT. On the other hand the USDA are one of the lowest around on the size of Brazil's corn crop at 70 MMT, with some estimates in the 76-78 MMT region. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 350-550 TMT. A disappointing figure below this range would not be good news for the few remaining bulls. China continues to reject US DDGs shipments. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.25 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.33 1/2, down 6 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market crashed around 7 to 11 cents lower on the day across the three exchanges, unequivocally breaking a rare two up days in a row trend. A sharply higher US dollar an weakening corn offered little in the way of support. A late tender for wheat for Feb shipment from Egypt's GASC will be interesting when the results are announced tomorrow. US wheat won the day in their last tender over the weekend, which way will this one go? US wheat has been competitively priced on the world market for weeks, but has been unable to muster up enough business to trigger much in the way of short covering. Japan are in the market for their regular combo of 180,000 MT of wheat from Canada, the US and Australia. Jordan bought 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat and Bangladesh re-tendered for a similar volume. India are tendering to sell more of their surplus wheat stocks ahead of a harvest that is only a couple of months away. They are now forecasting that to reach a record 100 MMT, which is around 10 MMT more than their projected consumption, further swelling their domestic stockpile. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA are 300-600 TMT. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.67 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.20 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.14, down 7 cents.