Nogger's Blog

13/08/13 -- EU grains closed mixed. Paris wheat gained a little, helped by a weaker euro, but London wheat fell again, with Nov 13 now closing lower for nine consecutive sessions.

On the day Nov 13 London feed wheat closed GBP0.80/tonne easier at GBP154.50/tonne (the equivalent of around EUR180.00/tonne), and with Jan 13 slipping up GBP0.30/tonne to close at GBP156.50/tonne. Nov 13 Paris milling wheat settled EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR183.75/tonne.

FranceAgriMer tweaked their estimate for soft wheat production there to "in excess of" 36.0 MMT. That puts them right in the same ballpark as the French Farm Ministry's 36.1 MMT, which would be only a modest rise on output of 35.6 MMT last year. FranceAgriMer estimate the barley crop at 10.6 MMT versus 11.3 MMT in 2012. They have rapeseed production at 4.5 MMT, down 1 MMT versus 2012.

In contrast, the Czech Stats Office forecast a sharp rebound in grain production there this year, up 15% to 6.5 MMT. That includes a wheat crop of 4.42 MMT, up more than 25% on 2012. They also predict record rapeseed crop of 1.31 MMT, up 18% versus last year.

The Russian grain harvest now stands at 45.5 MMT, with average yields of 2.72 MT/ha, up more than 30% on last year. The Russian Ag Ministry say that 43.7% of the wheat crop has been harvested so far, producing a crop of 33.4 MMT, with yields currently up 36% on this time a year ago at 3.05 MT/ha.

The Ukraine early grains harvest is just about done, producing 32 MMT off 99% of the planned area, with yields up 18.5% at 3.08 MT/ha. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimate this year's total grain crop at a record 57.1 MMT. Growers there have already begun preparations for sowing the 2014 crop, for which the Ministry is predicting a rise in winter plantings of almost 100,000 ha to 8.01 million ha.

Ukraine will remain an aggressive seller of wheat, corn and barley for at least the first half of 2013/14, and will probably export record volumes of grain during this campaign. Bangladesh today agreed to by 200 TMT of Ukraine wheat in an inter governmental deal.

At home, the HGCA said that as of 6 Aug the UK wheat harvest was less than 1% complete. They estimate that 30% of winter barley area had been cut along with 10% of oilseed rape.

The final trade data of the 2012/13 season came out today, showing that the UK exported 65,713 MT of wheat in June (the most since November as shippers clear the decks for new crop), along with 7,182 MT of barley and 5,226 MT of OSR. That takes full season wheat exports to almost 737 TMT of wheat, a steep drop of 1.8 MMT on the previous season's foreign sales of over 2.5 MMT.

Cumulative barley exports were less than half of what they were in 2011/12 at 384 TMT. OSR exports fell more than 30% to 721 TMT.

The largest foreign buyer of British wheat in 2012/13 was Spain at 273 TMT (versus 542 TMT in 2011/12), closely followed by the Netherlands at 263 TMT (down sharply from 943 TMT in 2011/12). The Irish (clear proof that they'll buy anything) took the most barley (77 TMT versus 46 TMT in 2011/12).

As far as wheat imports go, these have been running at around 250-300 TMT/month since December, and came in at 276 TMT in June. That takes the full 2012/13 season imports to just shy of 3 MMT versus 907 TMT in 2011/12. Barley imports were also up, from 156 TMT to 236 TMT, whilst corn imports jumped from 985 TMT to 1.7 MMT.