Nogger's Blog

01/08/13 -- Soycomplex: Weekly export sales of 78,500 MT of old crop and 1,030,900 MT of new crop - primarily for China (558,000 MT) and unknown destinations (302,000 MT) - easily beat trade forecasts for net sales of 450-600 TMT. The market ignored that, closing sharply lower, with new crop Nov 13 at a more than one year sub-USD12/bu low. A strong US dollar, linked to ideas that the Fed isn't as eager to abruptly end the era of easy money as was previously thought, trumped everything it would seem. FCStone estimated the US 2013 soybean crop at 3.309 billion bushels with yields of 43.0 bu/acre. That's very close to Lanworth Inc who went for 3.31 billion bushels, with yields at 42.9 bu/acre, yesterday. The USDA are currently at 3.42 billion bushels and 44.5 bu/acre. Agritrend yesterday estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 soybean crop at a record high 55.0 MMT, versus the 2012/13 crop estimate of 49.0 MMT and compared to the 2009/10 record crop of 52.7 MMT. The USDA currently estimate Argentina’s 2013/14 soybean crop at 53.5 MMT. The US weather outlook continues with the non threatening cool theme. "Rains increased across the southwestern Midwest and Delta this past week, which significantly improved moisture supplies for soybeans. Rains this week should further improve moisture in southwestern Illinois, and central and western Iowa. However, some spotty dryness will linger in southeastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois. Also, moisture will decline a bit in Minnesota and Wisconsin as rains remain limited there," said MDA CropCast. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.57 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD11.92 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD425.40, down USD9.70; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.49, up 40 points.

Corn: The corn market behaved exactly the same as soybeans. Weekly export sales of 134,000 MT of old crop and 1,091,200 MT of new crop were well ahead of trade expectations for combined sales of 400-600 TMT. The main new crop buyers were Mexico (393,800 MT), unknown destinations (306,200 MT), China (208,600 MT), and Japan (123,300 MT). Despite that corn closed sharply lower with new crop Dec 13 slumping to a fresh 2 1/2 year low. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the 2013 US corn crop by 5 MMT from last week to 348 MMT, due to improved rains and the lack of a heat threat. The IGC pegged the US corn crop at 350 MMT. They estimated the 2013/14 global corn crop at 942.0 MMT, down 4 MMT from a previous estimate of 946.0 MMT and 18 MMT below the USDA's forecast of 960 MMT, although still a record. "World stocks will be rebuilt in 2013/14, with inventories in the four main exporters forecast at a nine-year high," they noted. F O Licht estimated the EU-28 2013 corn crop at 67.0 MMT versus 59.0 MMT a year ago. They said that this bumper crop will reduce EU reliance on imports this year. They estimated the French corn crop at 14.8 MMT versus 15.6 MMT a year ago, saying that this wasn't going to be a vintage year for them. FCStone estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 13.993 billion with yields at 157 bu/acre. Both those numbers are very close to the USDA's 13.95 billion bushels and 156.5 bu/acre estimates. South Korea's Kocopia cancelled their tender for 55 TMT of optional origin corn for Sep/Oct shipment due to quality issues. The lowest offer was said to be Black Sea corn at USD253.50 C&F. Lanworth Inc yesterday raised their forecast for corn production in Ukraine this year to 26.4 MMT versus 20.9 MMT last year and the USDA's current forecast of 26.0 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry forecast a corn crop of a record 26 MMT, with exports at an also record 16 MMT. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.87 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.67, down 12 cents.

Wheat: Weekly export sales of 596,900 MT were in line with trade estimates of 500-700 TMT and interestingly included China (129,900 MT) and Brazil (88,300 MT). Reuters are reporting that Brazil has bought 400 TMT of US HRW wheat in the past week due to lack of availability from Argentina. Their own wheat crop is said to have been badly damaged by frost last week. The Xinhua News Agency are reporting that China has found pests in US SRW wheat shipments. The implications of that are currently unclear. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for world wheat production by 2.9 MMT from last week to 674 MMT, largely thanks to a surprise 2.5 MMT increase for Russian output to 53.1 MMT at a time when other analysts are reducing the size of the Russian crop. "Rains were abundant across northwestern and eastern Volga Valley and north central Kazakhstan this past week, which further improved moisture there as well as spring wheat conditions," they said. The Russian grain harvest is 28% complete at 36.5 MMT, including 29.2 MMT of wheat off 38% of the planned area. Wheat yields are said to currently be 3.07 MT/ha, up 28.5% on this time a year ago. Pakistan bought 55 TMT of Ukraine milling wheat for August shipment at USD276/tonne C&F. They are said to be likely to have to import up to 1 MMT of wheat this year, a 5-year high, which could throw into jeopardy their supposed agreement to provide Iran with 1 MMT of wheat in exchange for electricity. The Philippines also bought 45 TMT of Black Sea origin wheat for October shipment. Australian firm CBH said that Western Australia state will have a below average grain crop this year due to virtually no rain at all during June and the first half of July. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.58, down 6 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.06 3/4, unchanged; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.41 3/4, up 1/2 cent.