Chicago Ends Mixed, Trade Eyes Friday's USDA Data
25/06/13 -- Soycomplex: Last night's planting progress report showed 8% of this year's planned US soybean area was still not sown as of Sunday night. Time is running out to get the last of these beans into the ground. Talk that a delayed winter wheat harvest (Kansas is only 8% done versus 39% normally) will thwart some farmers double cropping plans is being seen as supportive to new crop. Very tight old crop supplies and the prospect of a late harvest meanwhile support the nears. Underlying the strong demand for nearby beans was China’s Ministry of Commerce estimating the country's June imports at a record 8.32 MMT, up 63% from May. Stats Canada estimated 2013 canola plantings there at 19.74 million acres, slightly higher than the average trade forecast of 19.635 million, although down on 21.531 million in 2012. All eyes are now on Friday's upcoming acreage and stocks reports from the USDA. The 8% of beans that remain unplanted as of Sunday equates to around 5.7 million acres. The trade has been predicting a rise in plantings from the USDA's March number of 77.1 million acres to 77.9 million. Some are now wondering if we might in fact get a reduction in area not an increase. That may happen further down the line, but it would be pretty radical for the usually optimistic USDA to spring that surprise in June. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.25 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.78 1/2, up 5 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD458.80, up USD7.80; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 47.14, down 41 points. The latter was within 10 points of being the lowest close for a front month in soybean oil since October 2010.
Corn: Strong physical demand for old crop supported the nears once more. Reports suggest that processors in Illinois are paying more than 60 cents over the July 13 futures price for corn, taking the cash price to well over USD7/bushel. Around 570,000 acres of corn remains unplanted in Iowa, along with significant areas of northern states line Minnesota (360k ha), Wisconsin (350k ha) and North Dakota (160k ha). Stats Canada estimated corn plantings there this year at 3.645 million acres (a record) versus an average trade guess of 3.743 million and the 3.544 million planted in 2012. The average trade forecast for Friday's plantings report is for the USDA to reduce their March forecast of 97.3 million acres by around 2 million to 95.313 million, from within a range of 94.2-97.2 million. Linn Group today forecast the 2013 US corn planted area at 95.282 million acres. Tomorrow brings the usual latest weekly US ethanol production data, output last week averaged 873,000 barrels/day, down 11,000 bpd from the previous week. The US weather forecast is non-threatening. Reports suggest that Brazilian and Ukraine corn is around USD25/tonne cheaper than US origin material. Brazil's safrinha corn harvest has reached Parana in the south where a record crop is anticipated. Deutsche Bank forecast new crop corn hitting USD4.60/bushel by the end of the year. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.56 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.44 1/2, down 2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market tried to rally but failed, held back by a pick up in pace of the Black Sea harvest and reports of a sharp increase in yields. Wheat harvesting in the south of Russia is reporting early yields up 39% versus last year, with barley yields up 39%. It's a similar story across the border in Ukraine where early grain yields are said to be 43% higher than a year ago. Russia’s Ag Ministry said that northern Russia will start harvesting later this week. Stats Canada announced a 12.6% increase in spring wheat plantings to 19.1 million acres. The durum wheat area is seen increasing 4.3% to 4.9 million acres. The all wheat area is 26.18 million acres versus 23.798 million in 2012. The Canadian barley area was forecast at 7.17 million acres versus 7.405 million in 2012. Toepfer forecast the 2013 German wheat crop up 8.3% on last year to 24.18 MMT and versus the 23.35 MMT that they forecast in May. Deutsche Bank forecast Q4 wheat prices in Chicago at USD6.35/bushel. The trade is expecting the US all wheat planted area to fall around half a million acres from the USDA's March forecast to around 55.9 million acres in Friday's report. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.75 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.04 1/4, down 11 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.09 1/4, down 2 cents.