Nogger's Blog

29/04/13 -- Soycomplex: Spillover support from corn sent the complex sharply higher, even though delays to corn planting could mean a switch to more soybean acres. This was only partially reflected in new crop months, which also still posted some decent gains of their own. Weekly export inspections of 8.935 million bushels were above trade expectations, and up on last week's 5.059 million. The wet and cool spring continues to delay corn plantings, with more rain and snow now in the forecast for parts of the Midwest later this week. Safras e Mercado say that 94% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested, and that 66% of the crop has been sold versus 75% a year ago and 63% for the 5-year average. Waiting times in Santos this month are said to have been between 8-43.5 days. In Paranagua it's been 2-56.5 days. With US soymeal sales for 2012/13 already in excess of the USDA target for the season it's likely that the USDA may revise their domestic crush estimate higher in next week's WASDE report. The Sep-Mar crush is up 6.7% versus the same period a year ago, the USDA currently estimate the full season crush to be down 3.9% year-on-year. There was no mention of soybean planting pace in tonight's crop progress report, although some beans are known to have been planted in the south. Funds were estimated as net buyers on the day of around 7-10,000 soybean contracts. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.71 3/4, up 41 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.08 3/4, up 27 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD431.40, up USD13.50; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.46, down 20 points.

Corn: Lack of perceived planting progress over the weekend, and a change to a colder and wetter outlook for the week ahead got corn off to a flying start to the week, with the front three positions officially closing limit up. "Soil temperatures are warm enough to begin planting corn in the southern Midwest, but wet fields are keeping farmers on the sidelines. Central Illinois has received 3-6 times the normal rainfall in the recent 2-3 weeks, generating a 3-inch moisture surplus. In the Northern Midwest, Wisconsin, Minnesota, northern Iowa and South Dakota, field temperatures are still too cold for fieldwork to begin, averaging 37 F and well below the 52 F required to germinate seeds," said Martell Crop Projections. After the close the USDA reported corn planting at only 5% complete, up just one point on last week and well below the 8-10% that the trade was expecting. Almost half the crop (49%) was planted at this point last year, and the 5-year average is 31% complete. Weekly export inspections of 11.576 million bushels were in line with trade estimates, but below the 17.662 million needed to hit the USDA's target for the season. Safras e Mercado forecast the Brazilian corn crop at a record 78.4 MMT versus 72.7 MMT in 2011/12. Funds, which have been deserting corn of late, were estimated to have been net buyers of around 30,000 lots on the day. Some of that may have been short-covering. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.84, up 40 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.59 3/4, up 40 cents.

Wheat: Spillover support from corn, along with fears of freeze damage to winter wheat on the Plains, helped wheat post gains of around 20c. In addition to that we also have cold, wet weather halting fieldwork and delaying spring wheat planting on the northern Plains and in the Midwest. After the close the USDA reported winter wheat rated poor/very poor increased by two percentage points to 35% last week, with good/excellent declining a similar amount to 33%. In the top wheat state of Kansas 39% of the crop is rated poor/very poor, up two points from a week ago. Maturity also lags - which may actually help minimise freeze damage - winter wheat headed is 14% versus 55% last year and 29% for the 5-year average. Only 12% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, up from 7% last week but well behind 70% a year ago and 37% normally at this time. The Wheat Quality Council's US winter wheat tour begins tomorrow and lasts for 3 days. Weekly export inspections were better than anticipated at 30.857 million bushels. Ukraine said that they'd shipped 1.2 MMT of grains so far this month, taking the 2012/13 marketing year to date total to 20.6 MMT, up 17.2% on a year ago. Of that 11.76 MMT is corn and 6.5 MMT wheat. They may finish the season exporting around 6.8 MMT of wheat it is thought. Fund buying in CBOT wheat was estimated at 9-10,000 lots, some of which was probably short-covering. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.09 3/4, up 21 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.80 3/4, up 24 1/4 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.31 3/4, up 20 1/2 cents.