Chicago Rallies Post USDA

27/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans rose to 2 week highs on old crop and 3 week highs on new crop heading into tomorrow's USDA reports. As well as prospective planting intentions and Mar 1st stocks, we also get the usual weekly export sales numbers, for beans the trade is expecting sales of a combined 500-800 TMT for both crop years. Old crop sales remember are already at 97% of the USDA target for the season. Lanworth Inc estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 50.5 MMT and the Brazilian bean crop at 81.1 MMT, both were unchanged from their previous estimates. Agroconsult estimated the Brazilian crop considerably higher at 84.4 MMT versus a previous figure of 84.2 MMT. Harvesting in Mato Grosso is almost over with slightly disappointing yields, although these are expected to improve as the harvest progresses further south. The range of estimates for tomorrow's Mar 1st stocks report is 905-984 million bushels, with the average guess of 935 million. Soybean planting intentions are expected to be between 77.0-79.7 million acres, with an average guess of 78.4 million. Funds were judged to have been net buyers of around 2-3,000 soybean contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.53 3/4, up 6 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.31, up 4 1/2 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD423.10, up USD2.90; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.82, unchanged.

Corn: The market shrugged off disappointing ethanol production numbers to press on to highs not seen since early February. The weekly ethanol grind was down 4,000 barrels/day from last week to 805,000 bpd, the tenth week in a row that it's failed to reach the USDA goal for demand of 4.5 billion bushels from the sector. Instead the market is concentrating on adverse weather conditions in the US, delaying planting and possibly even causing some damage to early planted corn in the south. South Korea's NOFI passed on a tender to import corn, buying feed wheat instead due to price. POET said that they will use an undisclosed percentage of sorghum to partially replace corn at it's largest ethanol production facility in SD. Lanworth Inc estimated the Argentine corn crop at 25.5 MMT and the Brazilian crop at 76.4 MMT, both unchanged from their previous estimates. They peg the Ukraine corn crop at 26.4 MMT, up 26% from a year ago. The Chinese crop is estimated at 216 MMT, up 4% from a year ago. Argentine corn offers are said to be around USD40/tonne cheaper than US corn FOB the Gulf of Mexico. That may mean another disappointing weekly export sales report tomorrow, for which trade guesses for corn are 2-400 TMT. The range of estimates for tomorrow's Mar 1st stocks report is 4.916–5.248 billion bushels, with the average guess at 5.03 billion. Corn planting intentions are expected to be between 95.7-98.5 million acres, with an average guess of 97.3 million. Fund buying was estimated at 4-6,000 contracts today. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.35 1/4, up 5 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD7.16, up 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Short covering saw wheat close higher on all three exchanges. Three successive nights of sub-zero temperatures may have caused some damage to wheat on the Plains is the talk. Iraq bought 350 TMT of Australian wheat in a tender that closed at the weekend it was revealed. South Korea bought 33,000 MT of Australian wheat for June shipment. The USDA's Canberra office pegged Australian wheat production in 2013/14 at 24.0 MMT, up 8.5% from 22.1 MMT in 2012/13. The have exports next season at 20.0 MMT, but noted that exports this season may not reach the USDA's target of 19.0 MMT due to logistical problems at the ports, projecting instead a figure of 18.0 MMT. Lanworth Inc estimated the Russian wheat crop this year at 50.4 MMT, up by a third on production in 2012 and an increase on their previous forecast of 49.8 MMT. The Ukraine 2013/14 wheat crop was estimated at 23.3 MMT, up 48% on last year but unchanged from their previous estimate. Jordan rejected offers on tenders to import 100 TMT each of wheat and barley due to price. Japan seeks 120 TMT of feed wheat and 200 TMT of feed barley in a tender for July shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are 3-600 TMT. The range of estimates for tomorrow's Mar 1st stocks report is 1.010-1.238 billion bushels, with the average guess at 1.167 billion. The US all wheat planted area is expected to be between 55.6-57.3 million acres, with an average guess of 56.4 million. Funds were estimated to have bought around 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.36 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.74, up 5 1/2 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.13, up 2 1/2 cents.