Chicago Slump Continues
11/02/13 -- Soycomplex: Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.31 1/2, down 21 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.17 1/4, down 19 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD413.00, down USD9.40; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 51.24, down 19 points. Fund selling in beans was estimated at 7,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections of 30.153 million bushels were below the 45-50 million anticipated. China is closed for the week, and Brazil, Argentina and Malaysia for today/tomorrow. Argentina’s Ag Ministry said that soybean planting there is now 99% done, up one point from a week ago. The country is in urgent need of rain, they added. "Light, scattered showers are expected across northern and eastern areas this week, including northern Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and northeastern Buenos Aires. However, the light, scattered rains continue to result in only slight improvements in moisture, and more notable rains are needed to significantly improve conditions. Indeed, much more notable improvements are expected in the 6-10 day period," said MDA CropCast. Goldman Sachs forecast the 3-month soybean price at USD14.00/bu versus a previous forecast of USD15.25/bu; the 6-month bean price was forecast at USD13.00/bu versus a previous forecast of USD14.00/bu; the 12-month bean price was forecast at USD13.00/bu versus a previous forecast of USD13.50/bu.
Corn: Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.02 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.01 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents. Corn export inspections beat the modest trade forecast of 5-10 million bushels, coming in at 14.463 million. Even so, that's still less than the 19.77 million needed to reach the USDA's newly lowered export total for the season. Fund selling was estimated at 6-10,000 contracts on the day. Argentina's Ag Ministry said that 97% of the corn crop has been planted versus 96% a week ago. Israel are shopping for 105,000 MT of corn,45,000 MT of wheat and 25,000 MT of barley of optional origin for March-June shipment. The Russian Ministry said that they exported only 113 TMT of grains in the first week of February, of which 56 TMT was corn. In Brazil: "Rains remained abundant across central and northwestern areas this past weekend, including Mato Grosso, Goias, eastern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and southwestern Minas Gerais. The rains continue to slow first crop corn and early soybean harvesting," said MDA CropCast. Goldman Sachs price forecasts: 3-month corn price forecast at USD7.50/bu versus their previous forecast of USD8.25/bu; 6-month corn price forecast at USD6.00/bu versus their previous forecast of USD8.25/bu; 12-month corn price forecast at USD6.00/bu versus a previous forecast of USD6.50/bu.
Wheat: Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.41 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.88 3/4, down 11 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.26, down 10 1/4 cents. Fund selling in Chicago wheat was estimated at 3-4,000 lots on the day. Export inspections of 22.452 million bushels beat trade forecasts of 15-20 million. However, things are still around 10% down on last season's pace. Bangladesh bought 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for March shipment, India is probably the most likely source. India’s STC are tendering to sell 30 TMT of wheat for March shipment. Some news services are reporting that Russia and Brazil are negotiating over possible Brazilian imports of Russian wheat later in the year. Given the perilous state of Russian stocks currently, if true this will have to be new crop business. There's talk of Russia removing the 5% import duty on grains this quarter, sooner than originally mooted. There's continued talk that they've already bought 100 TMT of US SRW wheat and are looking for more. Goldman Sachs price forecasts: 3-month wheat price forecast at USD7.80/bu versus a previous forecast of USD9.50/bu; 6-month wheat price forecast at USD7.80/bu versus a previous forecast of USD9.50/bu; 12-month wheat price forecast at USD7.80/bu versus a previous forecast of USD8.00/bu.