Nogger's Blog

10/01/13 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.17 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.79 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD408.70, down USD2.60; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.39, up 15 points. Weekly old crop export sales of 321,800 MT were in line with expectations of 200-400 TMT, actual shipments topped 1 MMT for a record 15th consecutive week. Funds were estimated as net sellers of around 2,000 soybean contracts on the day heading into tomorrow's all important USDA report. The USDA reported a flurry of business under the daily reporting system: 180,000 MT of US soybeans to China; 126,000 MT of optional origin soybean sales to China; 281,500 MT of US soybean sales to unknown destinations. The trade is expecting the USDA to increase final US 2012 soybean yields from 39.3 bu/acre to 39.6 bu/acre in tomorrow's report, increasing availability. US exports could also rise, given the rapid pace of sales and shipments since the start of the season, that would negate any increase in production, leaving ending stocks around the existing 130 million bushel mark. Brazilian production could be in for an increase from the existing 81 MMT, Argentine output may be left on hold at 55 MMT for now. World ending stocks are seen holding steady around the 60 MMT mark.

Corn: Mar 13 Corn closed at USD6.98 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD6.97 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents. Weekly export sales of 12,600 MT were very poor indeed, and well below even the modest trade expectations of 100-200 TMT. Weekly shipments were likewise at just 106,800 MT - a marketing year low. That sets the stage for a reduction in US exports for 2012/13 in tomorrow's USDA report, increasing US ending stocks a little from last month's 647 million bushels to around 667 million. World carryout is seen little changed around 117.6 MMT. US corn production in 2012 is seen at 10.626 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 10.1-10.801 billion. The December USDA estimate was 10.725 billion and 2011 corn production was 12.358 billion.

Wheat: Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.44 1/2, down 1 cent; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.96 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.39 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents. Weekly export sales of 233,700 MT were below expectations of 325-425 TMT. Total wheat commitments now stand at 68 percent of the USDA target versus the 5-year average of 81 percent. Egypt was at least in the market, booking 55,000 MT of US soft red winter and 60,000 MT of Canadian soft red winter. Prices were well below European offers, with nothing forthcoming from Russia. The trade is expecting a rise in US wheat acres for the 2013 harvest tomorrow. US exports may also be lowered, but increased domestic usage may see ending stocks left unchanged.