Chicago Market Gives In To Month End Pressures
30/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.38 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.32 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD442.40, down USD0.10; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 49.41, down 36 points. On the week Jan 13 beans were 20 cents higher, with Dec 12 meal up USD13.80 and Dec 12 oil gaining 37 points. Month-end positioning and profit-taking dragged beans lower on the day but they still finished the week with decent gains. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange say that 45% of the Argentine bean crop has been planted versus 36.4% a week ago and 56% a year ago. More rain is in the forecast for the weekend which may further hamper planting efforts. Southern Brazil meanwhile is dry. The IGC yesterday estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 54 MMT, with production in Brazil seen at 80.5 MMT. Both are a little lower than the USDA who go 55 MMT and 81 MMT respectively, although both are still well up on year ago levels of 41 MMT and 66.5 MMT. Neither crop is made yet of course with plantings of both still ongoing. There's still some talk of an emerging La Nina weather pattern.
Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.48, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.52 3/4, down 6 cents. For the week Dec 12 corn ended 2 1/2 cents higher. Fund selling was estimated at a net 7,000 contracts on the day. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that 52% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted versus 49.6% a week ago and 64.4% a year ago. A Reuters poll of 9 analysts put the 2012/13 Brazilian corn crop at 70.0 MMT versus 73 MMT in 2011/12. That's in line with the current USDA estimate. The IGC yesterday forecast the global corn crop at 830 MMT - unchanged from their previous estimate. World ending stocks were trimmed 1 MMT to 116 MMT. The Ukraine grain harvest is now 98% done at 45.6 MMT in bunker weight with yields averaging 3.14 MT/ha, down 16% on last year. The corn harvest is 95% complete at 19.25 MMT. A wheat export ban in some form or another is expected anytime, but they should remain keen sellers of corn well into the new year.
Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.44 3/4, down 24 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.97 1/2, down 19 3/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.18 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents. It was a mixed performance for the week, with Chicago wheat ending it 3 cents lower, with Kansas wheat up 19 1/4 cents and Minneapolis up 4 3/4 cents. Fund selling in Chicago was estimated at around 4,000 wheat contracts on the day. Having been noticeable by their absence lately, Egypt announced late in the day that it would be tendering for wheat for LH Jan/FH Feb shipment over the weekend. Given US wheat's dismal showing in the Algerian tender earlier in the week it will be interesting to see if US wheat will feature, we shall see. The Indian government have agreed to release a further 2.5 MMT of their surplus wheat stocks onto the market as confidence grows in prospects for 2013, ahead of their harvest kicking off in the spring. India’s state-run PEC Ltd issued a new tender for the sale of 125 TMT of wheat earlier today.