Nogger's Blog

04/12/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.55 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.50 1/4, up 2 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD447.80, up USD2.60; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 49.74, down 16 points. It was a relatively uneventful session with a weaker dollar adding support. Talk that China is actively shopping for soybeans for the first few months of 2013 and better than anticipated imports by the world's largest soybean buyer in November were also supportive. FC Stone estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 bean crop at 80 MMT versus their previous estimate of 82 MMT. Informa said 81.4 MMT versus the USDA's 81 MMT. Conab will release their latest figure on Thursday, their November forecast was 80.09-82.99 MMT. "The new weekly forecast calls for better rainfall in South Brazil, especially Parana. On the negative side, temperatures are expected to continue above normal," say Martell Crop Projections. Michael Cordonnier said 47% of the Argentine soybean crop has been planted versus 38% a week ago and 58% a year ago. He pegged the crop at 56.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.46 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.52, down 2 3/4 cents. Michael Cordonnier said that Argentine corn plantings made very little progress across the past week, advancing to 53% complete versus 51% a week ago and 65% this time last year. He estimated the 2012/13 Argentine corn crop at 22.5 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate and well below the USDA's 28 MMT forecast. He trimmed his estimated for the 2012/13 Brazilian corn crop to 70.0 MMT from a previous estimate of 71.0 MMT. Informa Economics cut theirs to 66.2 MMT. Conab release their forecast Thursday. Last month's report pegged the corn crop at 71.55-72.85 MMT, with corn exports at 15.0 MMT. Informa also cut their estimate for the Argentine crop to 27 MMT from 28 MMT. Tomorrow we get the latest US ethanol grind numbers, with last week's production total of 803,000 barrels/day needing to be improved upon to meet USDA demand projections for 2012/13. Next week we get the latest USDA WASDE report. Rabobank recently estimated the 2013 US corn area at a modern day record 97.6 million acres versus the 2012 area of 96.9 million.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.38 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.87 3/4, down 5 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.08 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents. Bearish news came from ABARES who, despite cutting their forecast for Australian wheat output this year to 22 MMT (which is still generally at the top end of trade estimates), said that they will export almost as much wheat as the produce in 2012/13 - 20.9 MMT - by virtue of the large carry in left over from 2011/12. Russia sold 64,935 MT of wheat from intervention stocks, bringing the total ince they began making sales on 23 Oct to 758,158 MT. StatsCanada are out tomorrow with their final 2012 production numbers, with the trade expecting an all wheat output of 27.1 MMT versus their previous estimate of 26.733 MMT and 2011 production of 25.261 MMT. Informa cut their Argentine 2012/13 wheat production estimate by 0.5 MMT to 11.5 MMT, the same as the USDA but well above forecasts from local analysts. Drought-hit US winter wheat on the Plains has a chance of some much-needed moisture next week, according to today's forecasts.