Nogger's Blog

31/07/12 -- Soycomplex: Aug 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.21, down 4 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.41, down 2 1/2 cents; Aug 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD544.70, down USD1.60; Aug 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.55, down 2 points. It was a choppy two-sided session with beans and the products settling mixed in what looked like month-end trade. Funds were said to have sold 2,000 soybean contracts on the day. Meal made a new historic high overnight of USD554.20 versus the old high of USD552.00 but failed to hold onto those gains in the day session. FC Stone’s vice president of commodities forecast the 2012 US bean yield at 37-38 bpa but said the soybean yield could go as low as 34-35 bpa if there is no rain in Midwest the next 2 weeks.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.06 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.05 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 9,000 corn contracts on the day in what also looked like month-end profit-taking and book squaring. FCStone forecast the 2012 US corn yield at 132-138 bpa. Taiwan bought 60,800 tons of Brazilian corn for Oct/Nov shipment. Based on a Reuters poll of 13 analysts the 2012 US corn yield is estimated at 129.0 bpa (a 14 year low). Based on the same survey 2012 US corn production is estimated at 11.2 billion bushels (a 6 year low). The latest weather forecasts offer the possibility of more frequent rains over the course of the next couple of weeks, although how much good that will do for corn now is debatable.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.88 1/4, down 26 1/4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.92 1/2, down 24 1/2 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.53 3/4, down 23 cents. Wheat also gave in to month-end activity with funds cashing in an estimated 5,000 Chicago longs on the day. Russia’s Ag Minister estimated Russia’s 2012 grain crop at 80 MMT versus a previous estimate of 80-85 MMT and 94.0 MMT in 2011. Weather concerns remain for the Black Sea region and Southeast Australia. Yet Russia picked up a South African wheat order and Ukraine filled an order for 100,000 MT of wheat to Jordan today. Customs data shows that Russia exported 975 TMT of wheat in July versus 1.30 MMT of wheat a year ago. Talk continues that Russia may limit grain exports, the government there will hold a meeting on August 8th to discuss Russia’s grain situation.