Nogger's Blog

20/06/12 -- EU grains closed mixed with Jul 12 London wheat unchanged at GBP178.50/tonne and Nov 12 London wheat also flat at GBP158.50/tonne. Aug 12 Paris wheat rose EUR2.25/tonne to EUR210.25/tonne and Nov 12 was also up EUR2.25/tonne to EUR212.50/tonne.

We appear to be treading water waiting for new crop.

The UK exported almost 129 TMT of wheat in April, bringing the marketing year to date total to 2.24 MMT, slightly down on year ago levels. That fits in nicely with Defra's 2011/12 full campaign estimate of 2.45 MMT.

Barley exports in April were almost 45 TMT, bringing the cumulative YTD total to nearly 764 TMT which already beats Defra's 2011/12 target of 750 TMT.

The UK's rapeseed exports fell to 144 TMT in April, down by a third on March, however the very strong early season pace means that we've shipped 875 TMT of rapeseed abroad in 2011/12, nearly 123% more than in the same period in 2010/11. Germany is the clear top export home, accounting for more than half of all foreign sales.

There's now widespread talk that Russia's wheat crop may have suffered worse winterkill and more recent drought damage than was originally thought. Exports in 2012/13 could fall by at least a third as a consequence it is now estimated.

The minutes of the MPC meeting released today show that the vote not to increase QE this month was narrowly split five against and four in favour. That's a marked difference from the 8-1 against in May and appears to signal that a shift towards further stimulus may be on the cards soon. That may strengthen the pound going forwards.