The USDA Numbers

10/04/12 -- Here they are folks, the eagerly awaited USDA numbers. They've cut Brazilian soybean production 2.5 MMT from last month to 66.0 MMT, which is a bit more aggressive than the trade was expecting and falls half a million below the lowest trade estimate. Argentina's soybean output is trimmed half a million to 21.5 MMT - in line with the average trade guess.

US ending stocks are cut 25 million bushels for soybeans to 250 million - pretty much bang on what was expected as too is US wheat ending stocks trimmed from 825 million to 793 million. A bit of a bearish surprise is US corn stocks left unchanged at 801 million bushels.

World wheat stocks are cut almost 3.3 MMT to 206.3 MMT, when the trade was only expecting a reduction of 1 MMT. World corn and soybean stocks are in line with trade estimates.

All in all it reinforces the bullish tone for soybeans and could be called a bit bearish for corn given the pace of early plantings.


USDA 2011/12 US Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Bushels):































Product
USDA Apr
Avg Est
Range
USDA Mar
Wheat
793
792
720-825
825
Corn
801
721
626-812
801
Beans
250
246
214-300
275

USDA 2011/12 World Ending Stocks Estimates (MMT):































Product
USDA Apr
Avg Est
Range
USDA Mar
Wheat
206.3
208.62
207.0-209.7
209.58
Corn
122.7
122.45
119.0-126.0
124.53
Beans
55.5
55.42
52.6-58.0
57.30

South American 2011/12 Crop Production:











































Product
USDA Apr
Avg Est
Range
USDA Mar
Year Ago
Brazil Soybeans
66.0
67.1
66.5-68.1
68.5
75.5
Brazil Corn
62.0
61.8
60.0-64.0
62.0
57.5
Argentina Soybeans
45.0
45.2
44.0-46.2
46.5
49.0
Argentina Corn
21.5
21.5
20.5-22.0
22.0
23.8