World Wheat Exports

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 12:01 | Categorized as

10/11/11 -- Scrutinising yesterday's USDA WASDE report with regards to their world wheat trade gets me re-writing the 2011/12 league table a little.

As mentioned below their estimate of 19 MMT for Russia is probably too low and should be nearer the 21 MMT mark, I feel. I'd suggest that their Australian estimate may be a shade under too, and their US and EU predictions possibly a little high.

Regardless of which one is right, we both see the EU-27 sliiping from second place to fifth in the world export rankings for the current season. My projections see Russia getting within 4 MMT of matching the US at the head of the table.

Here's a comparison table between what the USDA are forecasting and my own slant on things:






















































































World Wheat Exports 2011/12 (MMT):
 

2010/11
2011/12

USDA
2011/12

Nogger

Change

USDA

Change

Nogger
US
36
26
25
-28%
-31%
Russia
4
19
21
+375%
+425%
Australia
18.5
19
20
+3%
+9%
Canada
17
18
18
+6%
+6%
EU-27
23
17
15.5
-26%
-33%
Kazakhstan
5.5
8.5
8.5
+55%
+55%
Ukraine
4
8
8
+100%
+100%
Argentina
8
8
8
unch
unch
Total
124
131.5
132
+6%
+6.5%