Nogger's Blog

14/10/11 -- Soybeans: Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD12.70, up 13 cents; Jan 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.78 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents; Oct 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD328.40, up USD3.20; Oct 11 Soybean Oil closed at 53.20, up 100 points. On the week as a whole Nov beans gained more than a dollar after the USDA's WASDE report pegged the US soybean crop lower than the market expected. Funds were said to have bought 10,000 bean contracts on the day along with 2,000 meal and 5,000 oil. Weekly export sales for beans of 672,400 MT were pretty respectable. The September NOPA crush was 110.313 million bushels, well below trade estimates. Informa Economics forecast 2012 US soybean plantings at 77 million acres, 1.3 million up on last month, suggesting a record 3.4 billion bushel crop under normal conditions.

Corn: Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.40, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 12 Corn closed at USD6.51 1/2, also up 1 3/4 cents. On the week as a whole Dec corn was 40 cents higher. Weekly export sales were strong at 1,344,300 MT and that doesn't include the 900,000 MT sold to China this week which will show up in next week's report. Funds were said to have bought 4,000 contracts on the day, although the Commitment of Traders report shows them continuing to exit corn longs on the week through to Tuesday. Informa cut their forecast for 2012 US corn plantings by 1.2 million acres to 93.1 million. Even so US growers will still harvest a record 14 billion bushel crop if average conditions prevail - 12.6% up on the USDA's projected 2011 estimate from earlier in the week.

Wheat: Dec 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.22 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.07 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Dec 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.92 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents. On the week as a whole Chicago wheat was up 15 1/4 cents, with Kansas 23 cents firmer and Minneapolis falling 27 cents. Weekly export sales were in line with estimates at 500,600 MT. Wheat was more of a follower than a trend setter on the day, with outside markets providing support along with a weaker US dollar. Informa raised it's US all wheat planting forecast for the 2012 harvest by 400,000 acres to 57 million, a 5% increase on this year's USDA figure of 54.4 million. That implies a crop of 2.3 billion bushels of wheat - 14.5% more than the USDA estimate for this year - given normal levels of normal abandonment and trend-type yields.