Nogger's Blog

13/09/11 -- Soybeans: Sep beans closed 6 1/4 cents lower at USD13.81 1/4, with Nov beans falling 4 1/2 cents to USD13.91 3/4. Sep meal was down USD2.80 to USD357.30 and Sep oil fell 9 points to 57.16. A firmer opening quickly turned negative with funds exiting 5,000 soybean contracts and 3,000 meal & oil on the day. Monday's surprisingly bullish increase in yields still hangs over the market. Good/excellent ratings Monday night were left unchanged when many had been expecting a one or two point decline. The potential for an early frost across this next couple of nights prevented beans from matching more extensive losses in corn and wheat.

Corn: Sep corn fell 25 cents to USD7.09 1/4 and Dec declined 22 1/2 cents to USD7.23. Funds dumped 15,000 contracts triggering sell-stops which maybe exaggerated today's declines a little. Corn good/excellent conditions were surprisingly raised one point to 53% last night when the trade had been anticipating a 1-2 point decline. Despite cutting their US corn crop estimate by a bit more than expected on Monday, the USDA also slashed consumption from the feed sector, exports and even ethanol usage. In addition although US production was cut 10.6 MMT from last month, increases in output from South America, the EU-27 and Ukraine and a fall in global demand saw world ending stocks raised by almost 3 MMT in 2011/12.

Wheat: Dec CBOT wheat fell 25 1/4 cents to USD7.02, whilst Dec MGEX was down 24 3/4 cents to 8.76 3/4 and Dec Kansas wheat fell 23 1/2 cents to 8.02 1/2. Funds were said to have jettisoned 5,000 Chicago contracts on the day in a broad-based grains sell-off. The USDA cut export potential for the US this season by 2 MMT on Monday as current levels combined with a firm flight to safety dollar price American wheat out of the market. Egypt is tendering again for wheat, as you may recall US wheat wasn't even offered against their last tender. Spillover weakness from corn was also a negative influence for wheat today.