Chicago Close

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 07:52 | Categorized as

01/08/11 -- Soybeans: Aug 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.58 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.62, up 4 3/4 cents; Aug 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD352.70, up USD1.10; Aug 11 Soybean Oil closed at 56.15, up 50 points. The initial euphoria of a resolution of sorts to the US debt ceiling problem didn't last too long. Beans still managed to close in positive territory though as funds bought an estimated 4,000 soybean contracts as first of the month money came into the market. US weather forecasts look less troublesome, calling for normal temps and precipitation going forward through August. After the close the USDA dropped good/excellent crop ratings two points.

Corn: Sep 11 Corn closed at USD6.81 1/4, up 15 3/4 cents; Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.85 3/4, up 17 cents. Corn was the main beneficiary of new month fund money as they piled in for an estimated 14,000 contracts on the day - the equivalent of 1.8 MMT. There is widespread talk that final yields may only be around 155 bu/acre after a hot and dry July took it's toll. That's around 4/bpa lower than the USDA's July estimate. They're due out with a revised number next week and it would be of no surprise to see them leave that yield estimate unchanged, or only reduce it slightly, regardless of what damage might have been done last month. If they did, that could trigger some wholesale liquidation. The latest commitment of traders report shows large funds adding 3,000 contract to the net long position to the week ended 26th Jul, with Index traders adding almost 4,000 contracts. That leaves the former net long 190,000 contracts (24 MMT) and the latter net long 372,000 contracts (47 MMT). The USDA surprisingly left good/excellent crop conditions unchanged after the close.

Wheat: Sep 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.76 1/2, up 4 cents; Sep 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.71 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Sep 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.34 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents. Wheat closed higher but well off session highs as outside markets declined after the initial shine wore off the US debt ceiling announcement. Funds bought an estimated 3,000 CBOT contracts on the day. The USDA peg the winter wheat crop at 81% harvested, up six points from last week, but five behind normal. Spring wheat is 90% headed versus 98% normally and good/excellent fell four points to 70% with all of that drop coming in the good category incidentally. Wheat inspected for export this week was a disappointing 16.158 million bushels. Traders will be conscious of Russian wheat being offered into North Africa and the Middle East at prices way below US levels.