Nogger's Blog

08/07/11 -- Soybeans: Jul 11 soybeans closed at USD13.52, up 6 1/2 cents; Nov 11 soybeans ended at USD13.46 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD346.30, up USD3.30; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 56.20, down 27 points. On the week as a whole July beans were up 24 1/4 cents, meal up USD5.40 and oil up 104 points. Soybean weekly export sales were 305,700 MT old crop and 129,000 MT new crop, towards the low end of combined expectations of 400-700 TMT. Informa Economics estimated this year's US soybean crop at 3.203 billion bushels, down 3.8% on last year's 3.329 billion crop, with yields at 43.1 bushels/acre. Both numbers were down on Informa's June predictions, with production reduced by 73 million bushels and yields cut by a bushel/acre.

Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD6.72 1/4, up 22 1/4 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.37, up 21 1/2 cents. July was up 31 1/2 cents on the week, with Dec gaining 40 1/4 cents. Export sales were large at 621,800 MT old crop and 868,800 MT new crop for a combined total of almost 1.5 MMT versus expectations of 700 TMT to 1.3 MMT with "unknown" a featured buyer. At least some, if not most, of that is likely to be China. The long range weather forecast is calling for warm and dry weather to move into the Midwest, which stimulated some of today's buying. Informa estimated the US corn harvest at 13.759 billion bushels, up 10.5% on last season's 12.447 billion crop, with yields coming in at 162.5 bushels/acre based on a harvested acreage of 84.7 million acres. The yield number is down 1.1 bushels/acre from June, although still almost 10 bushels/acre up on last year.

Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD6.50 1/2, up 26 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD7.07 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD8.50, down 3 1/4 cents. On the week July CBOT wheat gained 66 cents, Kansas wheat 4 3/4 cents and Minneapolis 19 cents. Wheat export sales came in at 424,200 MT, on the low end of expectations for 450-650 TMT. China popped up as surprise buyer on one 55,000 MT cargo. Informa upped their US all wheat production forecast from 2.058 billion bushels last month to 2.095 billion, although that is still 5.1% down on 2.208 billion last year. Winter wheat production is seen at 1.476 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month but 9 million below last year. Strength in corn added support. CFTC data shows Managed Money decreasing their net short CBOT wheat position by 8,640 contracts this week.