Nogger's Blog

13/12/10 -- Fresh news is a bit thin on the ground this morning. Chinese data out over the weekend reports strong economic growth is continuing, but inflation also remains rising - up to 5.1% in November. For now they seem content to attempt to tackle inflation by continuing to tighten lending, rather than raising interest rates again.

The market seems to quite like that approach with beans up 12/14c on the overnights.

The Australian wheat harvest is back up and running, with GrainCorp reporting that they took delivery of just over 5 MMT during the course of the past week spread over the eastern states of Queensland, NSW and Victoria following "the return of drying conditions". Grades received continue to me "mixed" they cagily say.

Reports appear to be treating last week's ABARE wheat crop production estimate of 26.8 MMT with varying degrees of bemusement to downright old fashioned Aussie profanity. Only time will tell who's right. It now seems to be becoming accepted that "at least" half of the region's wheat crop will only be feed grade.

There is also widespread talk of some wheat being abandoned as not even fit for harvesting, with one report suggesting that this might even amount to 2-3 MMT.

Blimey, it's too dry in the west and too wet in the east and it's just too wet and dry at the same time in the south. And they call us whinging Poms. Get on with it, get your harvest done, stop moaning and fax us the results will you? We don't even get this amount of trouble off the Argies.

Talking of whom, things seem to have improved a bit there last week. Although "while topsoil moisture has increased, the subsoil is still very dry," according to Martell Crop Projections. More moisture is needed, particularly for corn which is about to enter the sensitive pollination stage sometime around Christmas, they add. The Argie bargies are the world's second largest exporter of corn, as you probably already know.

A bit closer to home (Argentina is pretty close to home, we own the Falkland Islands remember - Ed. Ooops sorry Ed so we do, well pointed out). OK even closer to home than Argentina, the USDA inexplicably raised EU-27 wheat ending stocks by a million tonnes on Friday, despite the fact that exports are currently running 37% up on a year ago. It seems that once again they think of the bottom line they want, then work backwards from that.

Talking of home AND the inexplicable, July London wheat closed at GBP199/tonne on Friday, GBP4 up despite not actually trading. It's now a five pound premium to two months earlier May. Do they let kids work out these settlement prices?

Talking of the simply inexplicable. I'm going to do you a little card trick. Look at the image below and pick a card, any card, hold it in your mind (if you can find it) but don't tell me what it is right? OK, keep that card in your mind. DON'T CLICK IT! DID I SAY CLICK IT? DON'T EVEN HOVER YOUR MOUSE OVER IT. Stop mucking about just concentrate for once will you? Right hold that card in you head, then click anywhere on the image below and I will, via my telepathetic powers, remove your card.



There you go. An in depth view of the market AND a card tick and it's not even ten o'clock. Be honest you didn't think I could do that did you? Tomorrow I will attempt to chop MrsN#1 in half using a rusty hacksaw blade and a copy of the Daily Mirror.