Monday Morning Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:53 | Categorized as

22/11/10 -- Having spent most of the last fortnight denying that they needed financial assistance Ireland yesterday finally said "oh go on then if you insist how does EUR70-90 billion sound? You'd better hurry up though as the man from Ocean Finance is on line three."

The pound is currently around 1.1680 against the single currency, almost exactly where it left off on Friday, having risen above the 1.18 level early last week - it's best since late September.

I don't somehow see the news as a key reversal of fortunes for the euro. The TV news was full of the public disquiet in Ireland last night, and these protests are likely to get worse when the scale of the austerity measures required to bring down the country's deficit are outlined.

And then of course we also have Spain and Portugal waiting in the wings for their turn at biting the inevitable bullet.

The news seems to have been met with welcome by the overnight grains which are all showing higher with beans up 16-18c, and wheat and corn up around 6-8c.

China say that they will auction off 100,000 MT of state-owned rapeseed oil on Friday. Customs data released today also shows that they've imported 1.2 MMT of wheat in the Jan/Oct period - double what the imported during the same time in 2009.

The USDA will report on US winter wheat crop conditions after the close tonight, last week saw a modest one point improvement in good/excellent. Will tonight show another improvement? It might as the Texas panhandle, Central Kansas and western Oklahoma all got rain last week, according to Martell Crop Projections.

Weather news for this week concerns much colder than normal temperatures in Canada that may plunge into the US Great Plains forcing wheat into dormancy, they add.

Argentina remains on the dry side, and temperatures are also rather cool - slowing down emergence of newly planted corn and soybeans. "The La Nina fluctuation typically causes drought in Argentina. Sometimes it breaks down mid summer, allowing beneficial rain to develop in February, in time for soybeans filling pods. If a strong La Nina persisted, however, it would be very damaging for Argentina soybeans with lasting drought," they warn.

Look for London wheat to open higher this morning, supported by the slightly firmer euro and current differentials between UK and EU wheat. Consumers are somewhat short and becoming rather nervous. November wheat expires tomorrow.