EU Wheat Closing Comments

Nov London wheat closed GBP1.50 lower at GBP153.00/tonne, with Nov Paris wheat down EUR0.75 at EUR208.00/tonne.

It was another volatile day with EU wheat futures opening higher in consolidation from recent steep losses, but coming under pressure later in the session following bearish stocks data from the USDA.

Nov London wheat traded within a fairly wide GBP6.00/tonne trading range, with Paris wheat fluctuating in a EUR11.50/tonne range.

The USDA's quarterly stocks report pegged September 1st wheat inventories higher than trade ideas at 2.459 billion bushels, the largest since the 1987-88 crop year. Corn stocks came in at 1.708 billion bushels, well above trade expectations of 1.407 billion.

That pressured grain prices later in the afternoon, with corn and wheat under heavy pressure in early trade on the CBOT.

US and Canadian weather forecasts call for unseasonably warm and dry conditions over the coming week. That should help harvest progress.

Defra reported the UK wheat planted area up 8.8% for the 2010 harvest, with the total planted barley area down by 19.3%.

Unsurprisingly, as they're only in a position now to tell us what happened twelve months ago, they aren't forthcoming on forecasts for the 2010 harvest. For wheat a crop of somewhere between 14.5 and 15 MMT looks likely.