Morning Musings

Russian grain production this season might not be as much of a car crash as some are suggesting according to this report from one well-know agency (here).

If the numbers they are quoting are correct then there clearly isn't going to be a need for any imports this season. Indeed, they're talking about the potential to export much more wheat that the big fat zero that the market is currently anticipating for the remainder of 2010/11.

The UK weather finally looks like it's ready to play ball this week, predictably just as the kids go back to school. That should enable good progress to be made with winter wheat and spring barley harvesting, and early OSR sowings here.

What will wheat quality come in like after a wet August? Possibly not as bad as feared.

It looks like being the end of the week before the rains clear across Germany however, there is now some talk of as much as half the wheat crop there only making feed grade.

That's pushed the differential between bog-standard feed wheat and top grade milling wheat up to around EUR40/tonne (GBP30/tonne).

Recent rains and cooler temperatures in Ukraine will have helped redress soil moisture deficits, but more is needed for winter sowing to hit full throttle.