US/Canadian Wheat Latest
Informa increased their US winter wheat production estimate to 1.481 billion bushels on Friday, compared to the USDA's May estimate of 1.458 billion.
That's up 15 million bushels from Informa's last estimate a month ago, and 64 million bushels above their April forecast.
Much will surely hinge on yields in Kansas where the winter wheat harvest is expected to start any day now. Further south in Texas and Oklahoma the harvest is in full swing. Early reports from these states seem to be suggesting decent test weights and yields, but proteins are a bit disappointing.
There has been plenty of talk of heavy infestations of stripe rust springing up the US's top producing wheat state. "Kansas wheat has succumbed to disease deteriorating rapidly in the past 2-3 weeks. Stripe rust has been the main culprit. Infestations are so bad that wheat breeders are throwing out 40-60% of their breeding stock," say Martell Crop Projections.
"Rainy May weather should have been a yield booster but instead promoted rapidly spreading fungus disease," they say.
Meanwhile winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest is also becoming infested with disease. "Conditions have been persistently rainy and cool this spring. Like Kansas, generous rains were beneficial to begin with, boosting wheat in the jointing stage. With spreading disease, poor-very poor wheat increased to 14% of Washington wheat, up from only 5% May 1," they point out.
Spring wheat potential is "excellent" at the moment however with topsoil moisture "much better than normal" they add.
Over the border in Canada however it has been a very wet spring with major flooding potentially meaning that more than a million acres might go unplanted in Saskatchewan, according to the Canadian Wheat Board. Crop insurance deadlines here are June 15-20, depending on the area and crop.
Things are particularly bad in Saskatchewan, which produces more than half of the nation's wheat crop.
Here, only fifty-nine percent of the wheat crop is in the ground, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture's Weekly Crop Report. That's an increase of only four percentage points from the previous week, indicating just how slow progress is becoming. The five-year average for this time of year is 86 percent complete. Planting is worst affected in the northeast (44 percent complete) and in east-central Saskatchewan (42%). Cropland topsoil moisture conditions here are reported as 94 and 84 percent surplus, respectively.
Eighty percent of spring cereals and oilseeds are behind normal in development, they add. In the northeast region only 13% of spring wheat is rated good/excellent. Planting progress here only managed to advance one percentage point from the previous week's report last week due to soils being saturated and unable to support heavy equipment.
That's up 15 million bushels from Informa's last estimate a month ago, and 64 million bushels above their April forecast.
Much will surely hinge on yields in Kansas where the winter wheat harvest is expected to start any day now. Further south in Texas and Oklahoma the harvest is in full swing. Early reports from these states seem to be suggesting decent test weights and yields, but proteins are a bit disappointing.
There has been plenty of talk of heavy infestations of stripe rust springing up the US's top producing wheat state. "Kansas wheat has succumbed to disease deteriorating rapidly in the past 2-3 weeks. Stripe rust has been the main culprit. Infestations are so bad that wheat breeders are throwing out 40-60% of their breeding stock," say Martell Crop Projections.
"Rainy May weather should have been a yield booster but instead promoted rapidly spreading fungus disease," they say.
Meanwhile winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest is also becoming infested with disease. "Conditions have been persistently rainy and cool this spring. Like Kansas, generous rains were beneficial to begin with, boosting wheat in the jointing stage. With spreading disease, poor-very poor wheat increased to 14% of Washington wheat, up from only 5% May 1," they point out.
Spring wheat potential is "excellent" at the moment however with topsoil moisture "much better than normal" they add.
Over the border in Canada however it has been a very wet spring with major flooding potentially meaning that more than a million acres might go unplanted in Saskatchewan, according to the Canadian Wheat Board. Crop insurance deadlines here are June 15-20, depending on the area and crop.
Things are particularly bad in Saskatchewan, which produces more than half of the nation's wheat crop.
Here, only fifty-nine percent of the wheat crop is in the ground, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture's Weekly Crop Report. That's an increase of only four percentage points from the previous week, indicating just how slow progress is becoming. The five-year average for this time of year is 86 percent complete. Planting is worst affected in the northeast (44 percent complete) and in east-central Saskatchewan (42%). Cropland topsoil moisture conditions here are reported as 94 and 84 percent surplus, respectively.
Eighty percent of spring cereals and oilseeds are behind normal in development, they add. In the northeast region only 13% of spring wheat is rated good/excellent. Planting progress here only managed to advance one percentage point from the previous week's report last week due to soils being saturated and unable to support heavy equipment.