EU Wheat Closing Comments

May London wheat ends GBP0.20 higher at GBP97.65/tonne, May Paris wheat up EUR0.75 at EUR128.00/tonne.

Signs continue to emerge of better than anticipated offtake of EU wheat. French government reduced 2009/10 wheat ending stocks 474,000 MT from its previous estimate based on higher exports.

Even so we are not exactly short of wheat, carryover volumes into the 2010/11 marketing year will still be large. The UK will still have an exportable surplus, even if Ensus and Vivergo were able to run at full capacity for the entire 2010/11 MY.

It is probably safe to say that we are in brief respite, rather than a fundamental market turnaround.

Production prospects from the Black Sea look uncertain for 2010/11, with UkrAgroConsult saying that wheat production in the region will fall to 87.5-91.5 MMT, down 8-12% from 99.6 MMT in 2009.

Spring wheat sowings are particularly late in Ukraine, with only 55% of the planned area seeded so far, they add.