Indian Summer Food Production Sharply Lower

Summer (kharif) foodgrain production in India has fallen alarmingly in the last two years following this year's disastrous monsoon season. This year's output of 96.63 MMT is the lowest since 2002/03, also a drought year, according to recent data from the government.

An article in today's Hindu Business Line outlines just how badly things have declined since 2007:

(in MMT) 2007 2008 2009
FOODGRAINS 120.95 117.70 96.63
of which..
1. Rice 82.66 84.58 69.45
COARSE GRAINS 31.89 28.34 22.76
of which..
1. Maize 15.11 13.90 12.61
2. Bajra 9.97 8.83 5.83
3. Jowar 4.11 3.10 2.55
PULSES 6.40 4.78 4.42
of which..
1. Tur 3.08 2.31 2.47
2. Urad 1.12 0.83 0.88
3. Moong 1.25 0.77 0.52
OILSEEDS 20.71 17.88 15.23
of which..
1. Soybeans 10.97 9.90 8.93
2. Groundnut 7.36 5.64 4.53
COTTON* 25.88 23.16 23.66
SUGARCANE 348.19 271.25 249.48
JUTE/MESTA** 11.21 10.41 10.24

* In million bales of 170kg each
**In million bales of 180kg each


This season's 15 MMT fall in summer rice production represents an 18% decline, lucky then that government buffer stocks are also said to be 15 MMT. But that leaves no carryover, and winter (rabi) rice production normally only accounts for around 15% of yearly output.

The sharp fall in rice production is expected to have the knock-on effect of increased wheat consumption.

This leaves India pinning all it's hopes on a good winter growing season, especially for wheat and rapeseed. The government are going to great lengths to reassure us that production of both will be up in spring 2010.

Output will however entirely depend on the vagaries of the Indian weather between now and next March. Is there a plan B I wonder?