eCBOT Close, Early Call
The overnight grains closed firmer, with beans up around 10 cents, wheat 6-7 cents higher and corn up a couple of cents.
The US dollar is relatively unchanged, crude oil around 50 cents lower and the stock market a tad higher.
Last night's heavy falls in the soy complex are being seen as overdone. China's decision to put half a million tonnes of soybeans up for sale from state reserves knocked the market for six yesterday. The reality of the situation is starting to dawn on people today, exactly how many takers are they going to find at levels around $40-50 over the current price of importing US beans?
US beans remain attractively priced relative to South America too, a fact backed up by yesterday's export sales numbers from the USDA.
Sure, I'm still bearish new crop, but that's a couple of months off yet. I think that the USDA overstated their 2008/09 ending stocks estimates in their last report, and that there will be some acute tightness before new crop gets in.
There are no weather problems on the horizon for US beans and corn, with both crops looking in largely excellent shape.
Weather is more of a problem for wheat however, with one huge wet cloud currently hanging over the UK, France and Germany. There are problems of a different kind further east with wheat and barley in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia all suffering from drought and lack of inputs.
APK-Inform report spring barley yields in Crimea in northern Ukraine are 40% lower than last season, and in Russia 3.2 million hectares of grain, or 7% of the crop, has been completely lost to drought.
Poor monsoon rains in northern India are impacting on sugar cane and rice production now, and might impact on wheat output from the world's second largest producer and consumer later in the year.
Brazil bought 51,000 MT of US wheat yesterday, finding it's Mercosur chum and normal supplier Argentina shut for the indefinite future.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-3 cents, soybeans 8-12 higher and wheat up 5-7 cents.
The US dollar is relatively unchanged, crude oil around 50 cents lower and the stock market a tad higher.
Last night's heavy falls in the soy complex are being seen as overdone. China's decision to put half a million tonnes of soybeans up for sale from state reserves knocked the market for six yesterday. The reality of the situation is starting to dawn on people today, exactly how many takers are they going to find at levels around $40-50 over the current price of importing US beans?
US beans remain attractively priced relative to South America too, a fact backed up by yesterday's export sales numbers from the USDA.
Sure, I'm still bearish new crop, but that's a couple of months off yet. I think that the USDA overstated their 2008/09 ending stocks estimates in their last report, and that there will be some acute tightness before new crop gets in.
There are no weather problems on the horizon for US beans and corn, with both crops looking in largely excellent shape.
Weather is more of a problem for wheat however, with one huge wet cloud currently hanging over the UK, France and Germany. There are problems of a different kind further east with wheat and barley in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia all suffering from drought and lack of inputs.
APK-Inform report spring barley yields in Crimea in northern Ukraine are 40% lower than last season, and in Russia 3.2 million hectares of grain, or 7% of the crop, has been completely lost to drought.
Poor monsoon rains in northern India are impacting on sugar cane and rice production now, and might impact on wheat output from the world's second largest producer and consumer later in the year.
Brazil bought 51,000 MT of US wheat yesterday, finding it's Mercosur chum and normal supplier Argentina shut for the indefinite future.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-3 cents, soybeans 8-12 higher and wheat up 5-7 cents.