Early Thoughts On Monday's USDA Report

The USDA are out Monday with a raft of production, stocks and planting estimates.

Slightly lower figures are expected for US 2008 corn and soybean production numbers, with the likes of Allendale having corn at 11.965 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's most recent estimate of 12.020 billion.

For soybeans Allendale say 2.916 billion bushels, down 5 million from the last USDA guess.

The really interesting bit, potentially, is the USDA's first estimate on winter wheat plantings. Everyone is expecting fewer acres, but by how much exactly? Allendale are projecting the total planted area at 45.131 million acres, compared to 2008's 46.181 million. Informa are saying much lower at 44.08 million acres. Some other estimates are coming in even lower still.

Additionally, the USDA will be updating quarterly and monthly domestic stocks estimates, along with their world stocks and production numbers. Quarterly soybean stocks are also worth watching, and could come in at a record low of 2.148 billion bushels on strong exports during the first quarter of 2008/09, according to Allendale.