21/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher on the day and for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money adding around 14k lots to their net soybean long to leave them 63.5k net long. The trade is looking for the USDA to put 2016 US
soybean harvesting at around 70% complete on Monday. Informa estimated 2017 US soybean plantings up 5.7% at a record 88.5 million acres, implying production at 4.15 billion bu using a return to "normal" yields of 47.2 bu/acre. The USDA’s Attache to Argentina estimates the 2016/17 soy crop at 55 MMT vs the USDA’s 57 MMT forecast. Winter rapeseed planting in Ukraine is said to be complete on 107% of the government's originally forecast area at 775k ha. Dryness has caused some emergence issues. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.83, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.92 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $306.50, up $1.90; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.12, up 7 points. For the week nearby beans were up 10 1/2 cents, meal gained $5.90 and oil added 74 points.
Corn: The corn market closed slightly higher on the day, but marginally lower for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering in around 61k contracts of their overall net short position in corn. Informa placed 2017 US corn plantings down 3.7% on this year. Average yields of 170.4 bu/acre would bring in a crop of 14.242 billion bushels. Argentine corn planting only moved on 2.9 percentage points this week to 34.7% done, said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. They see final plantings up 27% year-on-year at 4.9 million ha. FranceAgriMer said that corn harvesting there was 39% complete (versus 52% a year ago). Ukraine corn is 45% harvested at 10.92 MMT. Russia's crop is 48.3% harvested at 7.7 MMT. "The 5 day weather models bring in moderate to heavy rains in the central region of the Midwest early next week and the 6-15 day models expand that to the entire Midwest which is expected to slow the harvest progress significantly, said FCStone. Harvesting was 46% done as of last Sunday. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, For the week that puts Dec 16 corn 1 3/4 cents lower, with Mar 17 down 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and mixed for the week across the three exchanges. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering in around 33k lots of their net short in Chicago wheat for the week through to Tuesday night. Informa estimated US all wheat acres for the 2017 harvest at the lowest levels since 1970 at 48.9 million acres. Winter wheat plantings were seen at 35.42 million acres. The USDA's FAS in Brazil estimated their wheat crop this year at 6 MMT. Harvesting of that is taking place now. Dr Cordonnier reports that conditions are excessively wet, causing harvest delays and some production and quality concerns for the third year running. FranceAgriMer reported winter wheat sowing at 43% complete (23% last week and 52% last year at this time). Russia's winter grains are said to be 93% planted. Ukraine growers have 82% of their winter wheat area sown. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.29, down 2 1/4 cents. For the week that puts CBOT wheat 6 1/2 cents lower, with Kansas up 3 3/4 cents and Minneapolis up 1/2 a cent.
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was GBP0.20/tonne higher at GBP134.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR163.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn also ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR159.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR394.00/tonne.
For the week that puts London wheat GBP0.30/tonne lower (breaking a prior weekly winning run of five), with Paris wheat and corn EUR0.25/tonne easier and rapeseed EUR5.50/tonne higher.
Brussels said that they'd only issued 209 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, a pretty dismal total. Still, season to date exports are now 7.51 MMT, a 16% increase over last year, although that rate of rise is slowing.
"Wheat export pace over the remainder of the season will be expected to slow if the EU Commission’s end of season forecast of 25 MMT is to be realised," said the HGCA.
"With lower levels of exports from the EU likely to be a key feature for global trade this season the door is open for other key exporters to increase their share of the market," they added
Only 64 TMT worth of EU barley exports were approved this week, taking the cumulative total to 1.28 MMT, a 69% fall year-on-year.
FranceAgriMer said that winter wheat planting across the Channel is 43% complete, up from only 23% done a week ago but still lagging 52% this time last year. Barley planting is 61% complete (39% last week and 73% a year ago). Corn harvesting is seen at 39% done versus 23% last week and 52% in 2015. Final 2016 corn production is estimated 6.6% down at 12.2 MMT.
Ukraine said that they'd harvested 83% of this year's grain crop, bringing in 49.87 MMT so far. Corn harvesting is 45% complete at 10.92 MMT. Plantings for the 2017 harvest are 77% done, with 82% of next year's winter wheat crop now in, along with 43% of the government's projected barley area.
Ukraine's total grain exports so far this season stand at 12.44 MMT, including 7.82 MMT of wheat, 1.14 MMT of corn and 3.43 MMT of barley.
Russia said that their 2016 harvest is 93.9% complete at 117.5 MMT. That includes 98% of this year's wheat (75.7 MMT) and 96.9% of this year's barley (19.0 MMT). Corn harvesting is 48.3% done at 7.7 MMT. Winter planting for the 2017 harvest is said to be 93.2% complete on 16.2 million ha (versus 15.5 million ha this time a year ago).
20/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite weekly export sales of 2 MMT being announced today by the USDA. Cumulative sales are now 36% above last year. The USDA also announced 192,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown under the daily reporting system. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found a fairly even spread - Bullish: 6 Bearish: 10 Neutral: 8. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.75 1/2, down 6 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.84 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $304.60, down $1.80; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.05, down 35 points.
Corn: The market closed lower. Lanworth estimated the Argentine corn area at 28.4 million ha, well below the USDA's figure of 36.5 million. Weekly export sales came in above expectations ayt just over 1 MMT. Trade forecasts were for sales of 700,000 to 900,000 MT. Commitments to date are running 10.6 MMT ahead of a year ago. An exceptionally wet forecast in the 6-15 outlook could stall the US harvest. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found - Bullish: 8 Bearish: 6 Neutral: 10. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.51, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 513,800 MT were in line with expectations. The USDA also announced the sale of 114,000 MT of US wheat sold to unknown destinations for 2016/17 delivery. Egypt announced that they had bought 120,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender. for Nov 21-30 shipment. The prices paid averaged less than $190/tonne including freight versus a comparable US offer of around $207/tonne. Harvest progress in Canada remains slow. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.23, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
20/10/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, but mostly a touch easier. Rapeseed broke it's 11 session winning streak to close slightly lower.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.20/tonne at GBP133.80/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR162.50onne, Nov 16 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR159.25/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.00/tonne easier at EUR392.75/tonne.
French analysts Strategie Grains lowered their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop, coming up with a figure of 135.8 MMT, down 600,000 MT on a month ago and 10% below last year. This included downwards assessments for output in France, Great Britain, Austria, Estonia, Poland and Denmark.
They also reduced their ideas on exports for 2016/17 by 300,000 MT to 23.4 MMT, a 28% decline year-on-year.
Barley production was lowered 200,000 MT from a month ago to 59.7 MMT, but corn output was raised by 500,000 MT to 59.8 MMT.
In their first forecast for plantings for the 2017 harvest they said that they expected little change to winter wheat or barley sowings.
India continues to purchase foreign wheat after a disappointing quality harvest this year, and miller dissatisfaction with the standard of government owned wheat that is in storage. Indian buyers were reported to have booked 100,000 MT of Australian wheat today. Ukraine has been the other main beneficiary of this new pick up in demand.
The USDA's FAS in Moscow raised their forecast for this year's Russian harvest to a clean weight 114.5 TMT - a post Soviet era record. They have wheat output at 72 MMT, barley production at 17.7 MMT and a corn crop of 13.0 MMT.
Total grain exports were increased by 1 MMT to 38 MMT, including 29 MMT of wheat and 4 MMT of barley.
The Russian government said that the country has harvested 117 MMT of grains in bunker weight, including 75.7 MMT of wheat. The wheat harvest is said to be 98% complete.
Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to now be complete on 16.0 million ha, or 92.1% of the government target.
19/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher helped by continued firmness in palm oil levels. On the continuous chart palm oil closed at a 31-month high today. The USDA announced 185 TMT of US soybean sales to "unknown" destinations for 2016/17, keeping the strong demand theme going. With the US 2016 soybean harvest now mostly in the bag, the trade will soon start to fix it's attention on South America, weather and plantings. Argentine soybean planting is just beginning. The trade is divided as to have many fewer acres of soybeans might get planted there, if any, as growers switch to corn. Brazilian soybeans are said to be 17% planted nationally (13% a year ago and 16% on average). Mato Grosso is 31% done versus 17% a year ago. Parana is 31% done versus 23% a year ago. "South American weather prospects improved for the soybean growing areas for the South and Central areas of Brazil in the 10 day forecast. Argentina’s soy areas are expected to get broad coverage of needed showers over the next 15 days," said FCStone. We've not had a crop disaster for a while now have we? Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for beans are 1.0-1.3 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.81 1/2, up 9 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.90 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $306.40, up $3.00; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.40, up 33 points.
Corn: Corn closed higher, helped by weekly ethanol production of 998,000 barrels per day, up an impressive 37,000 bpd from the previous week. Crude oil was firmer, closing at the best levels since July 2015, which also helped corn's cause. Argentine corn is reported 32% planted versus 28% a year ago and 29% on average at this time. The trade is expecting a large jump in corn plantings of something in the region of 25% in Argentina this year. This comes following the Argentine government's decision to stall on their promise of reducing the soybean export tax (exports on corn were changed to duty free at the beginning of the year). Brazil are also expecting a sharp rebound in corn production for 2016/17 thanks to a return to normal yields. A report released by UN weather forecasters indicates they expect a 50-60% chance for weak La Nina conditions to form in the coming months. Ukraine said that it's 2016 corn harvest is 41% complete at 9.85 MMT. A crop of around 26 MMT is expected. Russia's 2016 corn harvest is 42.9% complete at 6.8 MMT. Indonesia are said to have purchased 200,000 MT of US corn in a tender for delivery before Christmas. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for corn are in the region of 700,000 MT to 900,000 MT. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.67 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with small gains. Worries over the late Canadian harvest remain, with quantity and quality likely being harmed by adverse weather conditions. The US could do with any export help it can get. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are only 350-550,000 MT. Still, cumulative exports to date are running 26% ahead of a year ago. Late in the day Russia said that they'd now harvested 93.5% of this year's grain crop, bringing in 116.6 MMT so far. Final production of around 120 MMT is expected - a post-Soviet era record. Wheat harvesting is 97.9% complete at 75.7 MMT. Barley adds a further 19.0 MMT to the mix (96.9% harvested). Winter plantings of mostly wheat for the 2017 harvest are now 91% complete on 15.8 million ha. Egypt said that they have sufficient wheat reserves to last them 5 months and immediately tendered for wheat for Nov 21-30 shipment with the results expected tomorrow. Heavy rain in Brazil's second largest wheat state of Rio Grande do Sul is said to be having a negative impact on the wheat harvest. "Some areas of central Rio Grande do Sul have already received as much as 15 inches of rain this week and there is more rain in the forecast for the remainder of this week and next week as well. Estimates are that 10% of the wheat crop has already been lost and loses could be as high as 30% if the forecast for heavy rains again next week verifies," said Dr Cordonnier. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.20 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.25 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4, up 3 cents.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP134.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR162.75/tonne, Nov 16 corn was unchanged at EUR159.25/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed was up EUR1.75/tonne to EUR393.75tonne - a new highest front month close since July 2015.
Rapeseed is seemingly setting it's sights on a test of EUR400/tonne, a level it hasn't closed above since April 2014.
A report on Reuters suggested that the French rapeseed area might fall 7% this year, Oil World estimate a 5-10% decline. Using even the lowest (5%) figure would represent the smallest area since 2012, say the HGCA.
The harvested area could be much lower considering the reports around of poor emergence in newly planted winter OSR.
The Reuters report estimates German rapeseed plantings unchanged and the UK area at the lowest in 7 years - 579k ha. Similar comments re emergence/establishment apply here too.
"Furthermore, the dry weather has caused weaker crop conditions in many parts of France, western Germany and Poland. This could put the plants at risk from frost and pest damage," said the HGCA.
FranceAgriMer said that French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations are down by a third for the first three months of the new season (Jul/Sep) following quality (and volume) problems with their crop this year. Exports to top home Algeria are 30% lower. Total export potential in 2016/17 is only forecast at 11.1 MMT versus 20.4 MMT a year ago, of which non-EU homes will take just 4.7 MMT compared to 12.6 MMT in 2015/16.
Ukraine said that their 2016 grain harvest is 82% done at 48.7 MMT. Corn harvesting is 41% complete at 9.85 MMT. Winter grains have been planted on 5.42 million ha (74% of plan), down 322k ha on a year ago. Dryness remains an issue for emergence. Winter wheat plantings are 79% complete at 4.89m ha, winter OSR sowings (769k ha) are finished.
Russia said that it's grain harvest was 93.4% complete at 116.3 MMT. Wheat accounts for 75.6 MMT of that (97.9% complete). Corn harvesting is 42.9% done at 6.8 MMT. Winter planting works are finished on 15.7 million ha, or 90.2% of plan. Dryness in the European part of Russia is also a problem for emergence.
Jordan were said to have bought 50,000 MT of optional origin feed barley at $180.90/tonne C&F for March shipment in a tender.
Egypt's GASC are back in the market for wheat, tendering for Nov 21-30 shipment with the results expected tomorrow. Romania and Russia won last week's business.
18/10/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" type trade. The market is still struggling to weigh up strong demand with record US production. The USDA reported the sale of 706,500 MT of US beans to China. This was likely part of another "showcase" deal signed last week for an estimated 5 MMT. FCStone said that yesterday's USDA good to excellent crop rating of 74% is the best-rated crop for this time of year in 24 years. Planting conditions in South America are improving. EU rapeseed and rape oil prices are setting new highs on tight supply. Worries remain about the lateness of the canola harvest in Canada. Emergence is said to be a problem with recently planted winter rapeseed in Europe. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.72 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.81 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Soybean Meal settled at $303.40, down $0.10; Dec 16 Soybean Oil settled at 35.07, down 37 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. In Brazil full season corn planting is continuing at a faster pace than last year, at 88% complete. Yields are expected to return to "normal" in 2016/17 following a poor harvest due to drought in 2015/16. The USDA's FAS in Europe lowered their estimate for this year's EU-28 corn crop to 60 MMT (the USDA themselves are at 60.3 MMT), although that's still up a little on 58 MMT a year ago. The USDA's FAS in Kiev estimated corn production in Ukraine this year at 26 MMT versus 23.3 MMT a year ago. They see 2016/17 corn exports at 18 MMT versus 16.9 MMT in 2015/16. Ending stocks are placed at 1.7 MMT versus 1.1 MMT last season. The EU will be Ukraine's top corn export home in 2016/17. The 5 day forecast is net wetter for the southern corn belt of Brazil and Argentina areas. The northern corn belt is dry," said FCStone. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.53 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.63 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, reversing some of the recent short-covering gains. Japan announced it's regular weekly tender for 132,000 MT of US, Canadian and Australian milling wheat. In Ukraine, "planting decisions made by farmers in regard to winter grains are being impacted by both economic factors and weather conditions," said the USDA. "Weather factors suggest insufficient levels of topsoil moisture as of the end of September 2016, which is confirmed by local weather reports as well as satellite imagery data," they added. Russia said that their grain exports so far this season are down 5% at 11.2 MMT, of which 9.24 MMT is wheat. The USDA's FAS in Europe estimated this year's wheat crop there at 144.5 MMT versus 160 MMT a year ago. That's still a bit higher than the USDA's own official forecast of 143.2 MMT though. Canadian production and quality is very likely coming down as they struggle to harvest the tail end of their crop, said Benson Quinn. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.20, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.27 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents.